Comparing Haller v Perez – who scores more in 19/20?

In this blog I’m going to have a look at a couple of new strikers who have been brought in by West Ham and Leicester – Sebastien Haller and Ayoze Perez.

Once again the stats used for this blog will be from understat.com.

Leicester spent £30m to bring Perez from Newcastle.  This was to replace Okazaki whose contract ran out at the end of last season.  When it comes to goals, Okazaki should be easy to replace as he was never the biggest scorer for Leicester.

Perez last season scored 12 goals for Newcastle, working out at 0.39 NPG90 compared to an xNPG90 of 0.25.  Perez in his career at Newcastle always scores at a higher rate than his expected goals, which is always a good sign for a striker.

Perez should in theory see an improvement this season coming in his goal chances.  Last season with Newcastle he had an xNPG of 8.29 goals, despite this he ended up with 12 goals.  This came despite Newcastle only having a rate of 11.72 shots per 90 minutes.  This low rate is also shown in the Key Passes per 90 Minutes of 8.54.  This compares to Leicester last season of Sh90 of 13.63 and a KP90 of 10.13.

If Leicester keep up this rate of chance creation, then Perez can look to get 15+ goals this season which can take a lot of pressure off of Jamie Vardy, who has borne the burden of goals for Leicester in recent years.

Sebastien Haller scored the same amount (12) NPG goals as Perez last season before his £45m move to West Ham but from a higher xNPG of 11.42 goals.  Haller’s NPG90 of 0.50 and xNPG of 0.47 however, was higher than Perez.

One of the issues that Haller may find is West Ham’s lack of chance creation.  They were very close to Newcastle last season with a Sh90 of 11.62 and KP90 of 8.59.  Haller’s previous club Eintracht Frankfurt had a Sh90 of 12.37 and KP90 of 9.03.  For Haller to improve on his 12 goals last season, he needs the service. 

This blog is a primer for something I will be writing over the next few weeks, which is how teams always want to sign a goal scorer to take them to the next level, when sometimes it is best to focus on getting in a goal creator.

I’m going to stick my neck out and say that Perez will score more goals next season than Haller, mainly due to the additional chances he will get from his Leicester teammates.

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